Probabilities of death
|Popularity Rank||Character||Probability of death|
|22||Brienne of Tarth||00,08%|
|112||Ser Ilyn Payne||43,06%|
|134||Arthur (little bird)||10,05%|
|188||Elboneno (Grand maître 3 kill the the boy)||60,26%|
|209||Grand Septon 2||55,72%|
|223||Magister Illyrio Mopatis||62,88%|
|246||Lady Kitty Frey||08,98%|
|294||Morgan (Deux Épées)||63,06%|
|316||Red Priestess (No one)||22,65%|
|340||Strong Sam Stone||18,36%|
|382||Walda Frey (Les Pluies de Castamere)||47,63%|
|395||Yezzan zo Qaggaz||77,16%|
On our site, when you move your mouse over a character's name, his picture and risk of death are displayed. You noticed it and you thought it was nice. But the name of your favorite character never appeared! If you want to know his probability of death: you've come to the right place!
But you also wonder what exactly do these probabilities correspond to? Do you think you're being taken for idiots? Yes, Ned Stark is dead! So what's the point of giving a probability of death?! He's dead, it's normal that his probability is high!
Yes, but no. It's more complicated than that! And much more exciting would tell you RomaneClick here to learn more about this girl who is so full of statistics that she keeps track of how many hours she bikes, how many times she bikes every day, how late the trains she takes....
For each of the 400 characters studied, the model knows two things:
(1) He knows everything about the characters. Age, build, allegiance.... EVERYTHING! Even the most intimate sexual deviance and the slightest inclination towards exhibitionism (number of scenes in which the character appears naked). (2) He knows whether the character is actually dead or not.
Thanks to this double knowledge, the model makes a robot portrait of the characters who die. He then takes the characters one by one, Ned Stark for example, and compares them to the previously established robot portrait. With his characteristics (an important character who had reached the 10 episodes of appearance, a fighter moreover, who appeared for the first time in cohort 1 and who has the misfortune to be a great lord), Ned looks in every way like the portrait of the characters who succumbed in the series! His probability of death is therefore very high. For Tommen Barathéon, who ends up just as dead as Ned, the model calculates a lower probability of death. How to interpret it? Ned Stark "fits" more to the profile of the deceased characters than Tommen. In this sense, he is more dead than Tommen. Strange, isn't it? Whereas normally, one is dead or not, the model quantifies death. Death is no longer binary but becomes quantifiable. To simplify, we talk about the risk of death. Considering all the information available, we can say at the end of season 7 that Ned Stark had a higher risk of death than Tommen. We are therefore talking about retrospective risks of death.
Are you disappointed? Do you feel like doors are being broken down? You mustn't do that!
These analyses allow us to establish the famous pure links we are constantly talking about. For example, we were able to establish that female characters die less in Game of Thrones because they are less often combatants or more often prostitutes (see "GoT: feminist or misogynist series?"). All other things being equal - that is, by acting as if male and female characters were fighting and prostituting themselves as much - female characters would die as much as male characters.
Isn't that enough for you? More theoretical, if the writers would give us the characteristics of a new character from season 8, we could estimate his risk of death.
Still not convinced of the interest of the method? All right, we'll allow you: you can use the probabilities of death displayed to guess the fate of your favorite (or hated) characters. Indeed, if the logic does not change, we can think that characters with a low probability of dying at the end of season 7 have a lower risk of dying during season 8.
For example, Romane bets that Euron Greyjoy will succumb. A fighting and antipathic character, he reached the 6 episodes of appearance. However, the risks of dying are at their maximum between 5 and 20 episodes. Yeah, if she had to bet on a death, it would definitely be Euron's.
But be careful. Don't take these probabilities for granted! They are based on the first 7 seasons. However, if until now it was necessary to spare the main characters, scriptwriters can now make everyone die! Everything is possible in the last season!
To inspire you, we let you go through the list of probabilities of death!