Probabilities of death

Popularity Rank	Character	Probability of death
1	Jon Snow	01,62%
2	Daenerys Targaryen	16,81%
3	Arya Stark	05,13%
4	Tyrion Lannister	01,21%
5	Sansa Stark	11,62%
7	Jaime Lannister	00,58%
11	Cersei Lannister	11,15%
12	Sandor Clegane	00,26%
14	Drogon	11,18%
15	Samwell Tarly	18,84%
17	Melisandre d'Asshai	47,50%
18	Gendry	63,91%
19	Jaqen H'ghar	45,20%
20	Grey Worm	38,93%
22	Brienne of Tarth	00,08%
25	Lyanna Mormont	15,89%
31	Jorah Mormont	00,80%
32	Bran Stark	04,65%
33	Davos Seaworth	03,65%
34	Bronn	00,27%
35	Theon Greyjoy	17,79%
37	Vère	15,80%
38	Tormund Giantsbane	22,42%
39	Daario Naharis	49,71%
40	Euron Greyjoy	65,96%
41	Night's King	58,44%
44	Podrick Payne	39,80%
45	Yara Greyjoy	31,47%
47	Missandei	00,42%
51	Varys	01,46%
57	Fantôme	48,05%
61	Meera Reed	80,24%
68	Gregor Clegane	06,25%
74	Hot Pie	35,13%
77	Beric Dondarrion	89,21%
81	Eddison Tollett	70,65%
85	Edmure Tully	39,62%
88	Robin Arryn	75,24%
92	Hallyne	34,82%
94	Kinvara	34,21%
98	Salladhor Saan	17,05%
102	Qyburn	06,49%
112	Ser Ilyn Payne	43,06%
116	Mestre Wolkan	12,93%
118	Chella	79,54%
119	Addam Marbrand	17,45%
121	Aeron Greyjoy	31,86%
123	Aggo Fandom	34,80%
126	Alys Karstark	06,49%
128	Anara	08,39%
129	Anguy	82,17%
130	Anya Vanbois	08,47%
132	Armeca	38,66%
133	Aron Santagar	43,89%
134	Arthur (little bird)	10,05%
135	Arwaya Frey	12,45%
136	Arys Oakheart	17,78%
137	Ash	23,05%
139	Aya	08,39%
140	Balon Swann	15,77%
143	Bernadette	16,96%
144	Bianca	13,98%
147	Bobono	12,45%
148	Ser Pounce	08,53%
150	Boros Blount	36,87%
152	Brant	50,42%
153	Brea	08,39%
156	Brusco	08,39%
158	Camello	10,87%
159	Clarenzo	11,44%
160	Clea	08,39%
161	Cley Cerwyn	04,95%
162	Clydas	77,89%
163	Cohollo	90,76%
164	Colen	43,44%
168	Daemon Sand	33,02%
170	Daisy	17,96%
171	Danseuse	24,42%
172	Dareon	77,89%
173	Denys Mallister	64,36%
174	Derek	50,42%
175	Derwa Frey	33,86%
176	Desmond Crakehall	17,45%
177	Deziel Dalt	46,08%
178	Dim Dalba	40,77%
181	Donnel Waynwood	17,40%
186	Archimestre Ebrose	32,64%
187	Eglantine	13,84%
188	Elboneno (Grand maître 3 kill the the boy)	60,26%
189	Eldrick Sarsfield	43,89%
191	Eon Hunter	57,71%
193	Farlen	20,43%
194	Fennesz	13,98%
196	Frances	07,73%
198	Freya Frey	33,86%
203	Genna	12,35%
204	Gerald	37,93%
205	Gerald Lannister	16,21%
209	Grand Septon 2	55,72%
212	Gyles Rosby	25,22%
213	Haggo	92,90%
216	Harrag	82,80%
217	Harys Swyft	46,08%
218	Helliweg	05,27%
219	Henk	29,61%
220	Hobb	35,73%
221	Thin man	08,39%
223	Magister Illyrio Mopatis	62,88%
224	Imry Florent	70,34%
225	Izembaro	12,45%
227	Jacks	59,30%
228	Janeya Frey	33,86%
229	Jeyne Poole	28,95%
230	Jhiqui	71,02%
231	Johnna	15,58%
232	Jon Lynderly	40,03%
235	Jonos Bracken	15,29%
237	Joss86	24,07%
238	Joss254	11,16%
239	Joss Stilwood	05,10%
243	Kayla	03,77%
245	Kesh	23,05%
246	Lady Kitty Frey	08,98%
247	Koner	29,61%
248	Kovarro	58,58%
250	Kullback	58,27%
255	Le Robuste	40,90%
262	Leo Lefford	17,45%
263	Lhara	06,95%
266	Lollys Castelfoyer	09,03%
268	Lord Blackmont	17,45%
272	Lothor Brune	32,15%
276	Malakho	91,11%
277	Malko	22,40%
279	Marei	13,06%
280	Marianne Frey	15,42%
281	Marillion	66,64%
283	Masha Heddle	41,72%
285	Melessa Tarly	39,73%
287	Merry Frey	15,42%
288	Mhaegen	27,89%
289	Mikken	30,32%
290	Mirelle	12,35%
291	Morag Craster	11,16%
292	Mord	25,49%
294	Morgan (Deux Épées)	63,06%
299	Ned Umber	06,49%
300	Neyela Frey	33,86%
301	Nymeria	74,23%
305	Olyvar	62,68%
306	Ornela	19,04%
307	Osmund Kettleback	15,53%
310	Palla	16,15%
312	Portan	05,52%
314	Preston Greenfield	60,74%
315	Prêtresse rouge	22,65%
316	Red Priestess (No one)	22,65%
319	Qhono	78,77%
323	Quaithe	29,70%
324	Quent	59,30%
330	Rhaegal	32,50%
334	Robett Glover	29,77%
336	Roslin Frey	61,76%
339	Sam	18,93%
340	Strong Sam Stone	18,36%
341	Sandhu	18,24%
342	Sang	03,59%
343	Sarra Frey	33,86%
344	Scolera	18,01%
345	Serra Frey	33,86%
346	Shagga	87,77%
347	Shirei Frey	33,86%
349	Sissy	11,16%
350	Steelshanks	90,03%
357	Talla Tarly	25,35%
359	Ternesio Terys	13,98%
360	Timmett	84,61%
362	Tobho Mott	38,88%
363	Todder	54,45%
365	Tomard	59,30%
366	Tommy	30,32%
368	Tycho Nestoris	09,17%
371	Vala	13,14%
372	Vance Corbray	25,50%
380	Viserion MV	63,24%
382	Walda Frey (Les Pluies de Castamere)	47,63%
384	Waldra Frey	33,86%
387	Weasel	18,42%
391	Willa	19,75%
394	Wyman Manderly	04,95%
395	Yezzan zo Qaggaz	77,16%
396	Yohn Royce	56,79%
398	Zanrush	18,01%

On our site, when you move your mouse over a character's name, his picture and risk of death are displayed. You noticed it and you thought it was nice. But the name of your favorite character never appeared! If you want to know his probability of death: you've come to the right place!

But you also wonder what exactly do these probabilities correspond to? Do you think you're being taken for idiots? Yes, Ned Stark is dead! So what's the point of giving a probability of death?! He's dead, it's normal that his probability is high!

Yes, but no. It's more complicated than that! And much more exciting would tell you RomaneClick here to learn more about this girl who is so full of statistics that she keeps track of how many hours she bikes, how many times she bikes every day, how late the trains she takes....

An essentially retrospective analysis....

For each of the 400 characters studied, the model knows two things:

(1) He knows everything about the characters. Age, build, allegiance.... EVERYTHING! Even the most intimate sexual deviance and the slightest inclination towards exhibitionism (number of scenes in which the character appears naked). (2) He knows whether the character is actually dead or not.

Thanks to this double knowledge, the model makes a robot portrait of the characters who die. He then takes the characters one by one, Ned Stark for example, and compares them to the previously established robot portrait. With his characteristics (an important character who had reached the 10 episodes of appearance, a fighter moreover, who appeared for the first time in cohort 1 and who has the misfortune to be a great lord), Ned looks in every way like the portrait of the characters who succumbed in the series! His probability of death is therefore very high. For Tommen Barathéon, who ends up just as dead as Ned, the model calculates a lower probability of death. How to interpret it? Ned Stark "fits" more to the profile of the deceased characters than Tommen. In this sense, he is more dead than Tommen. Strange, isn't it? Whereas normally, one is dead or not, the model quantifies death. Death is no longer binary but becomes quantifiable. To simplify, we talk about the risk of death. Considering all the information available, we can say at the end of season 7 that Ned Stark had a higher risk of death than Tommen. We are therefore talking about retrospective risks of death.

... but not only

Are you disappointed? Do you feel like doors are being broken down? You mustn't do that!

These analyses allow us to establish the famous pure links we are constantly talking about. For example, we were able to establish that female characters die less in Game of Thrones because they are less often combatants or more often prostitutes (see "GoT: feminist or misogynist series?"). All other things being equal - that is, by acting as if male and female characters were fighting and prostituting themselves as much - female characters would die as much as male characters.

Isn't that enough for you? More theoretical, if the writers would give us the characteristics of a new character from season 8, we could estimate his risk of death.

Still not convinced of the interest of the method? All right, we'll allow you: you can use the probabilities of death displayed to guess the fate of your favorite (or hated) characters. Indeed, if the logic does not change, we can think that characters with a low probability of dying at the end of season 7 have a lower risk of dying during season 8.

For example, Romane bets that Euron Greyjoy will succumb. A fighting and antipathic character, he reached the 6 episodes of appearance. However, the risks of dying are at their maximum between 5 and 20 episodes. Yeah, if she had to bet on a death, it would definitely be Euron's.

But be careful. Don't take these probabilities for granted! They are based on the first 7 seasons. However, if until now it was necessary to spare the main characters, scriptwriters can now make everyone die! Everything is possible in the last season!
To inspire you, we let you go through the list of probabilities of death!