When demographers play the Game of Thrones
When demographers play the Game of Thrones
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Probabilities of death

Be careful not to bet all your savings on these probabilities! Indeed, we encourage you to take them with a pinch of salt. For more information click here.

Popularity RankCharacterProbability of death
1Jon SnowPhoto du personnage01,62%
2Daenerys TargaryenPhoto du personnage16,81%
3Arya StarkPhoto du personnage05,13%
4Tyrion LannisterPhoto du personnage01,21%
5Sansa StarkPhoto du personnage11,62%
7Jaime LannisterPhoto du personnage00,58%
11Cersei LannisterPhoto du personnage11,15%
12Sandor CleganePhoto du personnage00,26%
14DrogonPhoto du personnage11,18%
15Samwell TarlyPhoto du personnage18,84%
17Melisandre d'AsshaiPhoto du personnage47,50%
18GendryPhoto du personnage63,91%
19Jaqen H'gharPhoto du personnage45,20%
20Grey WormPhoto du personnage38,93%
22Brienne of TarthPhoto du personnage00,08%
25Lyanna MormontPhoto du personnage15,89%
31Jorah MormontPhoto du personnage00,80%
32Bran StarkPhoto du personnage04,65%
33Davos SeaworthPhoto du personnage03,65%
34BronnPhoto du personnage00,27%
35Theon GreyjoyPhoto du personnage17,79%
37VèrePhoto du personnage15,80%
38Tormund GiantsbanePhoto du personnage22,42%
39Daario NaharisPhoto du personnage49,71%
40Euron GreyjoyPhoto du personnage65,96%
41Night's KingPhoto du personnage58,44%
44Podrick PaynePhoto du personnage39,80%
45Yara GreyjoyPhoto du personnage31,47%
47MissandeiPhoto du personnage00,42%
51VarysPhoto du personnage01,46%
57FantômePhoto du personnage48,05%
61Meera ReedPhoto du personnage80,24%
68Gregor CleganePhoto du personnage06,25%
74Hot PiePhoto du personnage35,13%
77Beric DondarrionPhoto du personnage89,21%
81Eddison TollettPhoto du personnage70,65%
85Edmure TullyPhoto du personnage39,62%
88Robin ArrynPhoto du personnage75,24%
92HallynePhoto du personnage34,82%
94KinvaraPhoto du personnage34,21%
98Salladhor SaanPhoto du personnage17,05%
102QyburnPhoto du personnage06,49%
112Ser Ilyn PaynePhoto du personnage43,06%
116Mestre WolkanPhoto du personnage12,93%
118ChellaPhoto du personnage79,54%
119Addam MarbrandPhoto du personnage17,45%
121Aeron GreyjoyPhoto du personnage31,86%
123Aggo FandomPhoto du personnage34,80%
126Alys KarstarkPhoto du personnage06,49%
128AnaraPhoto du personnage08,39%
129AnguyPhoto du personnage82,17%
130Anya VanboisPhoto du personnage08,47%
132ArmecaPhoto du personnage38,66%
133Aron SantagarPhoto du personnage43,89%
134Arthur (little bird)Photo du personnage10,05%
135Arwaya FreyPhoto du personnage12,45%
136Arys OakheartPhoto du personnage17,78%
137AshPhoto du personnage23,05%
139AyaPhoto du personnage08,39%
140Balon SwannPhoto du personnage15,77%
143BernadettePhoto du personnage16,96%
144BiancaPhoto du personnage13,98%
147BobonoPhoto du personnage12,45%
148Ser PouncePhoto du personnage08,53%
150Boros BlountPhoto du personnage36,87%
152BrantPhoto du personnage50,42%
153BreaPhoto du personnage08,39%
156BruscoPhoto du personnage08,39%
158CamelloPhoto du personnage10,87%
159ClarenzoPhoto du personnage11,44%
160CleaPhoto du personnage08,39%
161Cley CerwynPhoto du personnage04,95%
162ClydasPhoto du personnage77,89%
163CoholloPhoto du personnage90,76%
164ColenPhoto du personnage43,44%
168Daemon SandPhoto du personnage33,02%
170DaisyPhoto du personnage17,96%
171DanseusePhoto du personnage24,42%
172DareonPhoto du personnage77,89%
173Denys MallisterPhoto du personnage64,36%
174DerekPhoto du personnage50,42%
175Derwa FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
176Desmond CrakehallPhoto du personnage17,45%
177Deziel DaltPhoto du personnage46,08%
178Dim DalbaPhoto du personnage40,77%
181Donnel WaynwoodPhoto du personnage17,40%
186Archimestre EbrosePhoto du personnage32,64%
187EglantinePhoto du personnage13,84%
188Elboneno (Grand maître 3 kill the the boy)Photo du personnage60,26%
189Eldrick SarsfieldPhoto du personnage43,89%
191Eon HunterPhoto du personnage57,71%
193FarlenPhoto du personnage20,43%
194FenneszPhoto du personnage13,98%
196FrancesPhoto du personnage07,73%
198Freya FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
203GennaPhoto du personnage12,35%
204GeraldPhoto du personnage37,93%
205Gerald LannisterPhoto du personnage16,21%
209Grand Septon 2Photo du personnage55,72%
212Gyles RosbyPhoto du personnage25,22%
213HaggoPhoto du personnage92,90%
216HarragPhoto du personnage82,80%
217Harys SwyftPhoto du personnage46,08%
218HelliwegPhoto du personnage05,27%
219HenkPhoto du personnage29,61%
220HobbPhoto du personnage35,73%
221Thin manPhoto du personnage08,39%
223Magister Illyrio MopatisPhoto du personnage62,88%
224Imry FlorentPhoto du personnage70,34%
225IzembaroPhoto du personnage12,45%
227JacksPhoto du personnage59,30%
228Janeya FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
229Jeyne PoolePhoto du personnage28,95%
230JhiquiPhoto du personnage71,02%
231JohnnaPhoto du personnage15,58%
232Jon LynderlyPhoto du personnage40,03%
235Jonos BrackenPhoto du personnage15,29%
237Joss86Photo du personnage24,07%
238Joss254Photo du personnage11,16%
239Joss StilwoodPhoto du personnage05,10%
243KaylaPhoto du personnage03,77%
245KeshPhoto du personnage23,05%
246Lady Kitty FreyPhoto du personnage08,98%
247KonerPhoto du personnage29,61%
248KovarroPhoto du personnage58,58%
250KullbackPhoto du personnage58,27%
255Le RobustePhoto du personnage40,90%
262Leo LeffordPhoto du personnage17,45%
263LharaPhoto du personnage06,95%
266Lollys CastelfoyerPhoto du personnage09,03%
268Lord BlackmontPhoto du personnage17,45%
272Lothor BrunePhoto du personnage32,15%
276MalakhoPhoto du personnage91,11%
277MalkoPhoto du personnage22,40%
279MareiPhoto du personnage13,06%
280Marianne FreyPhoto du personnage15,42%
281MarillionPhoto du personnage66,64%
283Masha HeddlePhoto du personnage41,72%
285Melessa TarlyPhoto du personnage39,73%
287Merry FreyPhoto du personnage15,42%
288MhaegenPhoto du personnage27,89%
289MikkenPhoto du personnage30,32%
290MirellePhoto du personnage12,35%
291Morag CrasterPhoto du personnage11,16%
292MordPhoto du personnage25,49%
294Morgan (Deux Épées)Photo du personnage63,06%
299Ned UmberPhoto du personnage06,49%
300Neyela FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
301NymeriaPhoto du personnage74,23%
305OlyvarPhoto du personnage62,68%
306OrnelaPhoto du personnage19,04%
307Osmund KettlebackPhoto du personnage15,53%
310PallaPhoto du personnage16,15%
312PortanPhoto du personnage05,52%
314Preston GreenfieldPhoto du personnage60,74%
315Prêtresse rougePhoto du personnage22,65%
316Red Priestess (No one)Photo du personnage22,65%
319QhonoPhoto du personnage78,77%
323QuaithePhoto du personnage29,70%
324QuentPhoto du personnage59,30%
330RhaegalPhoto du personnage32,50%
334Robett GloverPhoto du personnage29,77%
336Roslin FreyPhoto du personnage61,76%
339SamPhoto du personnage18,93%
340Strong Sam StonePhoto du personnage18,36%
341SandhuPhoto du personnage18,24%
342SangPhoto du personnage03,59%
343Sarra FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
344ScoleraPhoto du personnage18,01%
345Serra FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
346ShaggaPhoto du personnage87,77%
347Shirei FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
349SissyPhoto du personnage11,16%
350SteelshanksPhoto du personnage90,03%
357Talla TarlyPhoto du personnage25,35%
359Ternesio TerysPhoto du personnage13,98%
360TimmettPhoto du personnage84,61%
362Tobho MottPhoto du personnage38,88%
363TodderPhoto du personnage54,45%
365TomardPhoto du personnage59,30%
366TommyPhoto du personnage30,32%
368Tycho NestorisPhoto du personnage09,17%
371ValaPhoto du personnage13,14%
372Vance CorbrayPhoto du personnage25,50%
380Viserion MVPhoto du personnage63,24%
382Walda Frey (Les Pluies de Castamere)Photo du personnage47,63%
384Waldra FreyPhoto du personnage33,86%
387WeaselPhoto du personnage18,42%
391WillaPhoto du personnage19,75%
394Wyman ManderlyPhoto du personnage04,95%
395Yezzan zo QaggazPhoto du personnage77,16%
396Yohn RoycePhoto du personnage56,79%
398ZanrushPhoto du personnage18,01%

On our site, when you move your mouse over a character's name, his picture and risk of death are displayed. You noticed it and you thought it was nice. But the name of your favorite character never appeared! If you want to know his probability of death: you've come to the right place!

But you also wonder what exactly do these probabilities correspond to? Do you think you're being taken for idiots? Yes, Ned Stark is dead! So what's the point of giving a probability of death?! He's dead, it's normal that his probability is high!

Yes, but no. It's more complicated than that! And much more exciting would tell you RomaneClick here to learn more about this girl who is so full of statistics that she keeps track of how many hours she bikes, how many times she bikes every day, how late the trains she takes....

An essentially retrospective analysis....

For each of the 400 characters studied, the model knows two things:

(1) He knows everything about the characters. Age, build, allegiance.... EVERYTHING! Even the most intimate sexual deviance and the slightest inclination towards exhibitionism (number of scenes in which the character appears naked). (2) He knows whether the character is actually dead or not.

Thanks to this double knowledge, the model makes a robot portrait of the characters who die. He then takes the characters one by one, Ned Stark for example, and compares them to the previously established robot portrait. With his characteristics (an important character who had reached the 10 episodes of appearance, a fighter moreover, who appeared for the first time in cohort 1 and who has the misfortune to be a great lord), Ned looks in every way like the portrait of the characters who succumbed in the series! His probability of death is therefore very high. For Tommen Barathéon, who ends up just as dead as Ned, the model calculates a lower probability of death. How to interpret it? Ned Stark "fits" more to the profile of the deceased characters than Tommen. In this sense, he is more dead than Tommen. Strange, isn't it? Whereas normally, one is dead or not, the model quantifies death. Death is no longer binary but becomes quantifiable. To simplify, we talk about the risk of death. Considering all the information available, we can say at the end of season 7 that Ned Stark had a higher risk of death than Tommen. We are therefore talking about retrospective risks of death.

... but not only

Are you disappointed? Do you feel like doors are being broken down? You mustn't do that!

These analyses allow us to establish the famous pure links we are constantly talking about. For example, we were able to establish that female characters die less in Game of Thrones because they are less often combatants or more often prostitutes (see "GoT: feminist or misogynist series?"). All other things being equal - that is, by acting as if male and female characters were fighting and prostituting themselves as much - female characters would die as much as male characters.

Isn't that enough for you? More theoretical, if the writers would give us the characteristics of a new character from season 8, we could estimate his risk of death.

Still not convinced of the interest of the method? All right, we'll allow you: you can use the probabilities of death displayed to guess the fate of your favorite (or hated) characters. Indeed, if the logic does not change, we can think that characters with a low probability of dying at the end of season 7 have a lower risk of dying during season 8.

For example, Romane bets that Euron Greyjoy will succumb. A fighting and antipathic character, he reached the 6 episodes of appearance. However, the risks of dying are at their maximum between 5 and 20 episodes. Yeah, if she had to bet on a death, it would definitely be Euron's.

But be careful. Don't take these probabilities for granted! They are based on the first 7 seasons. However, if until now it was necessary to spare the main characters, scriptwriters can now make everyone die! Everything is possible in the last season!
To inspire you, we let you go through the list of probabilities of death!